Overanalysis of a Kindle Purchase

I was thinking about buying a Kindle recently. I wanted to think through whether it would be a good economic purchase. I started with the assumption that the user experience would be identical (or at least comparable enough that I wouldn’t pay more for one than the other) and asked myself how long will it would take me to pay back the purchase of the hardware. And, will that payback period be shorter than the expected life of the device?

I looked at my Amazon purchase history for June 2008-December 2009 to assess what my book purchasing habits have been. I found 28 books that I purchased for myself.(1) I then added the four books that I purchased in physical book stores. This gave me 32 titles purchased over 18 months to consider.

I discovered that ~60% (19/32) of those titles are available on the Kindle at an average savings of $4/book.(2) If I’d bought every one of the available titles on a Kindle instead of in paper format, I would have saved $77 over 18 months—about $50/year. At $250 for the device, I’d need to keep my Kindle for 5 years to break even. That seems unreasonable, given an two-year(3) product life cycle for most of my electronics, provided that having a Kindle doesn’t change my book-purchasing behavior.(4)

Were there additional factors to consider? I would gain some value from being able to download and enjoy on a non-backlit screen many out-of-print books like Alice in Wonderland or the complete works of Shakespeare.(5) It would be easier to carry books and I wouldn’t have to wait for them to be delivered. I’d also avoid the need to ‘complete’ orders by getting them up to $25 to qualify for free shipping. Then again, I’d lose the ability to easily make notes, couldn’t loan these books to my friends, and, for those books that weren’t available on Kindle, it would be even harder to ‘complete’ the orders up to $25. It’s all pretty hard to quantify.

So, I ended up getting a Kindle. It’s great and I’m very happy with the purchase. In the end, the portability and instant delivery of books justified the cost to me. It’s a good reminder for me that the ‘economic’ justifications for most of my consumer decisions are less important than the user experience ones and that the attributes hardest to quantify can often drive purchase decisions.

1. I excluded books purchased for others – I’m unlikely to buy someone an electronic copy of a book, and even if I did, whether I could do that is controlled by whether they have a Kindle.

2. Most Kindle titles are $9.99. My purchases ranged from $7-20, with an average cost of $13—strangely this means that there was a small bias in my sample towards the cheaper books being unavailable in Kindle format.

3. I recognize that the Kindle would likely last longer, but it remains true that my devices have a habit of lasting fewer than 3 years: T41 laptop: 2.5 years, then too slow to use; T43 laptop: 20 months then too slow to use; 3rd generation iPod: 25 months then “dead Mac” face (AppleCare warranty lasted 24 months); iPod Shuffle I: 2 years, then lost; iPod Shuffle II: 2 years, then stolen; Samsung A160 phone: 7 months, then its inability to call internationally became relevant; replacement phone running Windows mobile: 18 months then died with a tiny curl of smoke; Motorola RAZR: 24 months, then dropped for an iPhone; 2G iPhone: 23.5 months, then touchscreen failed (leading to two weeks without a phone while my contract expired); 3GS iPhone: still working after 6 months. Whether through obsolescence, the appearance of a sufficiently superior product, failure, or theft, the only device I own today that has seen its third birthday is the CD player/tape deck combo I bought in middle school.

4. Anecdotally, I’ve heard people say that Kindles make reading easier, but don’t actually increase book purchasing behavior. At any rate, I’d have to believe that the device would more than double my book-buying in order for it to make economic sense.

5. How to value these marginal titles? Most can be purchased as “Penguin Classics” for $1-3. The fact that I haven’t yet, even at such low prices indicates to me that I value them very little. For the purposes of this evaluation, I’ll round that down to $0.

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The point of owning books

A personal library was originally a repository of knowledge. University libraries or ecclesiastical collections existed, but were rare and far away. Even as late as the 20th century individuals kept private collections of books that were more comprehensive on narrow subjects than most research institutions. That’s just not the case anymore.


Sarah and I own a couple hundred books. They’re mostly paperbacks, not printed on acid-free paper, not first editions, not signed, and usually not read more than once. Until recently I’ve treated these books with the care I was taught as a child so I could “responsibly” handle library materials and grade school textbooks that went a decade between replacements. But now I realize that my books are nothing more than long-form newsprint – around for a while, but not ultimately valuable, archivable, or important. They are temporary appliances of knowledge, just like my dishwasher, television, or toaster and they are only as valuable as I make them through usage.

So, I’ve changed. I think books should be cherished by being consumed, not by being preserved.

I now write in my books (a good practice for any student at any age, regardless of school policy). I rephrase what’s been said to remember it. I make comments to other readers, most notably my wife and my future self. And, I use them as scratch pads for other ideas that relate tangentially if at all.

I also now loan my books out (with the knowledge that two thirds will never be returned). That’s fine. A new copy of anything is two days and $15 away on Amazon, and if I’m honest with myself I know that I go back to old books relatively rarely. This new attitude will probably cost $30/year, but should allow me to loan out ~15 books/year. Just as some say you should publish content for free so that more people support your thinking (and therefore, more people buy your books/ask you to speak), I plan to give away books so more of my friends can discuss them with me.

And now, that project to catalog all of our books doesn’t seem *quite* as silly. Let me know if you’d like to borrow one.

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