My early efforts at investing were unsuccessful

I don't fully subscribe to the University of Chicago's disbelief in alpha, but even if there are people who can successfully pick stocks that will perform in excess of their risk-adjusted expectations, I am certainly not among them.

Fortunately, I learned this lesson early in life, with my first (and so far only) investment in an individual stock: Stratos Lightwave. I made my purchase after getting involved in an investment club my sophomore year of college whose sponsor advised everyone to "put a token amount into a stock you choose; this will give you the motivation to follow the market."

It didn't go as well as I'd hoped:


Early experiences have a funny way of having outsized influences on our later lives, but I was more or less convinced by this to stop picking stocks, and leave my money in index funds. Of course, if you'd like to prove me wrong with a can't-lose stock, feel free to drop me a line.

Read more...

The point of owning books

A personal library was originally a repository of knowledge. University libraries or ecclesiastical collections existed, but were rare and far away. Even as late as the 20th century individuals kept private collections of books that were more comprehensive on narrow subjects than most research institutions. That’s just not the case anymore.


Sarah and I own a couple hundred books. They’re mostly paperbacks, not printed on acid-free paper, not first editions, not signed, and usually not read more than once. Until recently I’ve treated these books with the care I was taught as a child so I could “responsibly” handle library materials and grade school textbooks that went a decade between replacements. But now I realize that my books are nothing more than long-form newsprint – around for a while, but not ultimately valuable, archivable, or important. They are temporary appliances of knowledge, just like my dishwasher, television, or toaster and they are only as valuable as I make them through usage.

So, I’ve changed. I think books should be cherished by being consumed, not by being preserved.

I now write in my books (a good practice for any student at any age, regardless of school policy). I rephrase what’s been said to remember it. I make comments to other readers, most notably my wife and my future self. And, I use them as scratch pads for other ideas that relate tangentially if at all.

I also now loan my books out (with the knowledge that two thirds will never be returned). That’s fine. A new copy of anything is two days and $15 away on Amazon, and if I’m honest with myself I know that I go back to old books relatively rarely. This new attitude will probably cost $30/year, but should allow me to loan out ~15 books/year. Just as some say you should publish content for free so that more people support your thinking (and therefore, more people buy your books/ask you to speak), I plan to give away books so more of my friends can discuss them with me.

And now, that project to catalog all of our books doesn’t seem *quite* as silly. Let me know if you’d like to borrow one.

Read more...

Bill Clinton hated me

I met Bill Clinton in 1999.

It was just a handshake/10 second photo sort of thing, but I remember it very clearly. I was 18, had disheveled hair, and was wearing a bow tie. Clinton shook my hand and said, “I like your tie.” It made me feel pretty good.

About eight years later, I was talking to a friend who worked in Washington who let me know that I’d missed the subtext. David Maraniss in his book The Clinton Enigma explains that Clinton used to compliment people’s ties when he actually meant “F*** you.” Apparently, it was a way to relieve stress without offending. As a politician you really can’t yell at people, but it feels good to tell the loathsome that you hate them, even if only in code. A tie compliment is the perfect code since just about everyone will read it as sincere.

Read more...

Sleep greatly impacts my productivity

Some days seem so productive. Other days, not at all. I find that the amount of sleep I've gotten is the best predictor. I wonder if inability to do work when fully rested is just a visceral reminder that humans aren't meant to sit still for 60% of their waking hours.

Read more...

Seasonality lowers the 2008 projection

An unknown Ken brings up a good point about my annualization of 2008 numbers in an earlier post about exercise. He asks if there is a seasonal effect, for instance, a spike in activity in early January while New Years' resolutions are still fresh. I don't think the particular example is right since I tend to make resolutions like "Spend more time at charity events," or "Save money elsewhere to spend it on occasional fancy groceries," but I acknowledge there may be seasonality.

Other than a consistent spike in July (a beautiful outdoor month in Boston), it's pretty hard to see the pattern in this data.

One thing that is clearly highlighted is my 2007 effort to train for my first marathon (the red line that jumps up in February). I went out hard, and while you'd hope to see that line trending upward as the mid-April race date approached, it actually trended down, revealing the results of my increasing knee pain.

Another big jump comes from a decision to start lifting weights in the spring of 2008. That heightened level of activity may be unsustainable, and points to a regression to pre-2007 levels unless I maintain the weight-lifting goal, or establish a new one.

However, the question remains – is there a difference between the seven months of data I've collected and the rest of the year? This next graph should clarify the issue:

Using this new information, we can prepare new estimates for the 2008 full year. With 205 days on record, we can figure the number of remaining projected workouts by multiplying 60 sessions by (365-205)/205 and then applying a 25% discount and arrive at a total of 35 additional sessions (as opposed to the original estimate of 41).

While this doesn't change the previous conclusions, which were based on year-over-year changes, and not just the 2004-2008 change, it does make the increase in '08 seem more reasonable, although 2008 still projects to be quite an increase over past years:

Read more...

Workout length poised for a regression to pre-graduate school levels

It appears that 2004-2006, I averaged about 50 minutes per session, while in 2007 and 2008 I averaged about 20 minutes more. The most obvious driving force here is that I attended graduate school September 2006-June 2008, which left me with much more free time than when I was working.

So, what caused the longer sessions? Was it simply that I didn't have work waiting for me at home, and that allowed me to run farther? Partially, yes. I began playing squash on weekdays, something that had been strictly a weekend pursuit for me in the past. That sort of gain is likely to be reversed. Then again, having more time off also inspired me to set larger goals. I ran a marathon in the spring of 2007, and started lifting weights in spring of 2008, both of which made me spend more time at the gym. Those gains may be maintained.

A shift in the type of exercise might also help explain the change in workout length, but the exact composition and its change is unclear. It's also unclear why 2006 shows a decrease in workout length when the last 6 months were in graduate school or on vacation.

It seems clear that when predicting the future, the rise in number of workouts could be sustainable, but that the increase in workout length may or may not be in for a regression to the historical mean, depending on whether changes in exercise mix and goals or weekday squash was a larger driver of the 2007-2008 increase.

Of course, there is a significant observer/actor bias, but we'll assume that exercise is driven by stronger forces than graph creation.

Read more...

Number of workouts per week has strongly driven increase in exercise since 2004

Last time I looked at how much I've been exercising over the past five years. It looked as though exercise has been increasing, but I wanted to know why. The first question to address is how more frequent sessions and longer sessions have impacted total exercise. Have totals been padded because I've made exercise a more integrated part of my life or because I've had more time to spend at the gym? First let's look at frequency of workouts:


This shows a very steady growth of ~10 extra sessions/year. I'd expect this data to be pretty noisy since the decision to exercise or not on any given day is based on so many factors, and because the data refers to ~50-70 events per 365 days. Nevertheless, four years of increases of similar magnitude is enough to convince me that something is going on.

I interpret this as a steady integration of exercise into my daily life. While I did occasionally work out in the years before 2004, it was mainly pick-up sports at infrequent intervals. I had never jogged, never used a weight room (with the exception of 3 months in 2000), and never set goals to improve my endurance, strength, flexibility, or agility.

What this means for the future is that I would expect this trend of increasing exercise to continue and gradually level off. This stands in contrast to the other factor responsible for my increase in total exercise time, which I will investigate next: length of workout.

Read more...